Are You Making Decisions Based on Assumptions? Here’s How Data Can Help

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Are you leading based on assumptions? Many leaders rely on instincts alone, but data can sharpen your decisions. Learn how to balance intuition with insights for better leadership.

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YOU'RE THE LEADER...
NOW WHAT?

Trust Your Gut—But Verify With Data

Are you an instinctual leader?

Whenever I reflect on my decision-making process, my gut—or “hunch”—plays a significant role. Leadership instincts are often correct. Not always, but often.

There’s no denying that instincts can take you far, but they’re even more powerful when backed by data.

The Moment That Changed My Perspective

I worked as a marketing consultant for a large restaurant chain two decades ago. In one of our meetings, I asked about the redemption rates for their “Be Our Guest” free entrée coupons. These had been a cornerstone of their couponing strategy for years.

The team confidently stated they had a 50% redemption rate. Curious, I asked where that number came from.

Everybody kind of looked around at each other.

No one could produce a report, spreadsheet, or study to validate it. After digging, we discovered the “50% redemption rate” was just a guess—a hunch someone had thrown out years earlier and had been passed down as law for decades.

The redemption rate was closer to 20% when we ran our own study.

That moment serves as a valuable reminder: instincts are helpful, but they can mislead without the right data.

The Two Truths About Data in Decision-Making

Data is critical in decision-making. Data shouldn’t necessarily be the only driver of decisions, but data should inform nearly every decision.

1. Data Is Your Ally, Not Your Answer

Trusting your gut doesn’t mean ignoring data. Data isn’t there to override your intuition—it’s there to sharpen it or confirm it. Think of data as a flashlight illuminating the areas your instincts are pointing toward.

    • Example: If your gut says your team isn’t engaged, gather employee feedback or hold one-on-one conversations to identify why. Data can confirm, clarify, or even challenge your intuition.
2. Only Applicable Data Is Valuable

Leaders often collect data because it feels productive, but not all data is actionable. If the data doesn’t help you make a decision, it’s just noise.

    • Example: Instead of tracking email open rates, focus on the actions that follow—like sign-ups for an event or volunteer opportunities.

The Three Types of Data Every Leader Needs

1. Quantitative Data (What is happening?)

Numbers tell a story. Financial reports, attendance trends, and volunteer sign-ups give a snapshot of reality.

  • Example: If giving is down at a non-profit, quantitative data can reveal which months or demographics are contributing less.
  • Pro Tip: Use tools like dashboards or Excel to visualize trends—it’s easier to act on data you can see.
2. Qualitative Data (Why is it happening?)

Numbers rarely tell the full story. Surveys, interviews, and open-ended feedback reveal the “why” behind the trends.

  • Example: If event attendance drops, qualitative data can uncover dissatisfaction with programs or a lack of connection.
  • Pro Tip: Encourage open-ended feedback—some of the best insights come from unstructured responses.
3. Predictive Data (What could happen?)

Predictive data uses trends and patterns to anticipate outcomes.

  • Example: If volunteer sign-ups consistently spike after certain events, plan recruitment campaigns around those times.
  • Pro Tip: Start small. Identify one recurring trend and use it to make a proactive decision.

The Data-Informed Decision Framework

Want to ensure your decisions are grounded in data? Follow these steps:

  1. Start With the Decision
    Don’t start with the data; start with the question or decision you need to make.

    • Ask: “What am I trying to decide?” and “What data would clarify my options?”
  2. Ask Better Questions
    Data is only as good as the questions you ask. Be specific.

    • Instead of: “Why isn’t attendance growing?”
    • Ask: “Which demographic groups are declining in attendance, and why?”
  3. Combine Intuition With Insights
    Let your instincts guide you to the right questions, but let the data refine the answers.
  4. Inspect the Data for Bias
    Always consider the source and limitations of your data.
  5. Create an Action Plan
    Data is useless without action. Use it to decide your next step.

    • Example: If volunteer sign-ups are down, run a targeted recruitment campaign.

Conclusion: Balancing Instincts and Insights

As leaders, our instincts are invaluable. But pairing them with data ensures better, more informed decisions. Next time you face a challenge, ask:

  • What decision am I trying to make?
  • What data do I need to make it well?

Your gut may get you started, but data will keep you on track.

Call to Action

Need help sharpening your leadership instincts with data-driven strategies? Visit gavinadams.com to explore coaching and consulting options.

Quotes for Inspiration
  • Data will talk to you if you’re willing to listen.” – Jim Bergeson
  • Instinct is great. But data makes it unstoppable.”
Resources for Further Learning
  • Data-Driven Leadership by Amanda Datnow
  • Predictive Analytics for Decision Making by Jeff Prince

One More Thing…

If you found this helpful, please pass it along to other leaders (and encourage them to subscribe!).

If you’re ready to accelerate your leadership, I’d be honored to help. Visit gavinadams.com to explore my systemic approach to leadership development and schedule a 30-minute conversation.

If you’re a church leader, be sure to visit the Church Accelerator Community.

Leading With You,
Dr. Gavin Adams

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